TheChinese government is usually quite secretive with its agricultural production statistics, especially statistics about vitally important crops like rice, wheat, and corn. So when the Chinese government admits to the worst drought conditions in 60 years and posts an article on an official website anyone concerned about already rising global food prices should become alarmed.
According to the Gov.cn website Shandong province has seen only 12 millimeters of rain since last September, fifteen percent of the normal level. It is also reported that Central China's Henan province is experiencing extreme drought conditions as is the northern part of Jiangsu province. The drought is so severe that not only agricultural production is being affected but even having enough drinking water is becoming an issue.
The UN food agency has also issued a warning about the possible dire consequences of the China drought. In a the New York Times article entitled "UN Food Agency Issues Warning on China Drought" by Keith Bradsher, published: February 8, 2011 it was reported that Shandong Province, a cornerstone of Chinese grain production, was bracing for its worst drought in 200 years unless substantial precipitation came by the end of this month.
The Chinese Lead the World in Wheat Production
The Chinese population is approximately one sixth the population of the world. In normal times the Chinese are largely self-sufficient in the production of wheat and corn. That is, they seldom need to buy these commodities on world markets. In wheat production China produced almost twice as much as the United States or Russia and more than five times as much as Australia.
These statistics show that a disaster in the production of the Chinese wheat crop will quickly become a disaster for the world. To offset the decline in domestic production the Chinese would be forced to make purchases in already stressed world wheat markets, likely driving up prices to extreme levels.
“China’s grain situation is critical to the rest of the world — if they are forced to go out on the market to procure adequate supplies for their population, it could send huge shock waves through the world’s grain markets,” said Robert S. Zeigler, the director general of the International Rice Research Institute in Los Banos, Philippines.
The Drought in China Adds to World Food Inflation Pressures
The drought in China could hardly come at a worse time. Wheat, corn, and rice prices are already surging on world markets and food shortages and high prices are causing demonstrations, even food riots, in countries around the world. High food prices, especially for wheat and wheat products such as bread, were apparently a contributing factor in sparking the demonstrations and revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt. A high degree of inflation in food prices leads to problems for any government, even in highly developed countries such as the United States.
In less developed and third world countries sharply rising food prices are a complete disaster as the populations spend a much greater percentage of their total incomes on food than in developed nations. Food riots can quickly develop if a large percentage of the population is going to bed hungry each night.
The worst drought in China in 60 years comes only one year after drought conditions in Russia drastically reduced their wheat crop. For several months Russia stopped exporting wheat to world markets. With stockpiles low around the world you can expect that nations will be looking after their own citizens. World tensions are sure to increase as an "everyman for himself" mentality sets in.
China Needs Fast Drought Relief or Disaster Will Follow
Unless there is soon some unexpected relief in the form of catch up rainfall in China's prime agricultural regions the year 2011 will go down as a year of tremendous food inflationary pressures. As rapid and substantial increases in the price of food usually leads to unrest, demonstrations, and food riots, 2011 for much of the world's population would probably be remembered as a highly stressful and perhaps hungry time.
Due to climate change, whatever the cause, should the weather in 2011 be a harbinger of a series of years where extreme drought takes place in prime agricultural regions the world's human population would be in a heap of trouble. We would likely descend into a dark scary period where food riots, civil unrest, starvation, wars, and diseases associated with malnutrition, would seriously reduce the human population of this planet.
Gerald Greene - Technology may save the world but it is a hard task master. It takes increasing amounts of work to keep up with the latest and greatest.
Join the Conversation