Egypt's Armed Forces Supreme Council announced last Friday that it is in command after the Mubarak resignation. One of the Egyptian Army's first acts was to suspend the constitution and to dissolve the Egyptian parliament. These actions were stated as being taken to prepare the way for nationwide elections within six months.
Politicians and diplomats who have extensive experience in the region are somewhat nervous about the Egyptian military taking control of affairs in Egypt. However, they acknowledge that since Mubarak did not allow opposition political parties to openly operate or for independent institutions to exist the Egyptian military is the only organization capable of maintaining order in a country that now has a power vacuum.
Senate Foreign Relations Chairman John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) said, "I don't think anybody should be getting too carried away with a victory lap today." Kerry was referring to the celebrations taking place in Cairo and throughout the country immediately after Mubarak announced his resignation.
Egyptian Military Has Huge Task in Maintaining Order
"You have a military in charge that has yet to prove it knows how to manage this kind of transition," he said. "Mubarak's example may make the region's unelected leaders, especially those supported by the United States, more willing to adopt political reforms before public protest sweeps them away as well," said Kerry.
"The question is how do they respond and we need to work with them on how to do so," Kerry said. "This is the challenge of the Middle East." The immediate challenge for the United States seems to be how best to manage damage control with other repressive regimes in the region supported by the US.
US Has Fence Mending to do With Saudis and Others in Region
"We do have mending to do with the Saudis and others, who seem to have concluded we threw Mubarak over the side," said Elliott Abrams, a former deputy national security adviser for the Middle East under George W. Bush. "It will take a little tending to the relationship with the king and possibly with others."
No doubt, Abrams was understating the issue when he said that "it will take a little tending". Reportedly, the Saudi's are especially mad as hell at how Mubarak was treated by the United States government. They feel that the US quickly threw Mubarak under the bus. Apparently, the treatment of the dictator Mubarak frightens the Saudis as they fear that a tinderbox of high unemployment, escalating food prices, restricted freedoms, especially among women, tremendous inequality of income, and resentment from living for years underneath the heel of a repressive government could ignite at any time and bring their own regime down.
While United States diplomats and key administration officials will be busy mending fences throughout the North African and Middle East region, they must also keep a close eye on how the Egyptian military governs. There is sure to be a great deal of unrest across Egypt as the euphoria of a successful revolution gives way to continued concern about problems such as high unemployment and rising food prices. There will be a great deal of stress placed upon the Egyptian military.
Egyptian Military in High Profile Difficult Position
It is entirely possible that a population that is still celebrating its victory over the Mubarak government may expect too much from the Egyptian military as to its ability to solve the problems. By suspending the constitution and dissolving the parliament the military has basically placed Egypt under martial law. For the Egyptian military to manage curfews, continued protests including possibly food riots, labor strikes, and civil disobedience of any sort, without incidents that will damage its relationship with the Egyptian people, will be extremely difficult.
In effect, the Egyptian Revolution is just beginning. For a nation without any democratic foundations in place, the transition from a dictatorship, to martial law, to a smoothly functioning democracy will likely be extended and difficult, and one that may require more than six months of Military Council rule. US diplomats and the diplomats of governments throughout the region are going to be nervously busy as they attempt to understand and deal with the new Egypt.
Gerald Greene - Technology may save the world but it is a hard task master. It takes increasing amounts of work to keep up with the latest and greatest.
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