The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was founded by Abdul-Aziz bin Saud in 1932. The present king, King Abdullah bin Abdul-Aziz, succeeded to the throne on August 1, 2005, upon the death of King Fahd. King Abdullah is now 87 years old. Thanks to Saudi Arabia being located above the world's largest oil reserves and delivering about 9.758 million barrels of crude oil per day (2009 estimate per WolframAlpha) to world markets, King Abdullah is one of the world's richest monarchs.
Saudi Arabia Has a Complicated Conservative Ruling Structure
Saudi Arabia is ruled as an absolute monarchy, which means that the king serves as the Head of State as well as the Head of Government. In practice however, Saudi Arabia has a more complicated form of government in that as the home of Islam's two most holiest sites and as the protector of the Islamic religion power is shared with Ulema (religious scholars). This means that major policy decisions are not made solely by the king. This helps to explain why the Saudi Arabian government is so conservative and resistant to accepting change within the kingdom.
The rigidity of the monarchy is on a collision course with the demographics of Saudi Arabia and the region. According to The Economist in an article titled "The royal house is rattled too", Mar 3rd 2011,Cairo, "70% of Saudis are under the age of 30, and their median age is 19, the Saudi cabinet ministers average 65. Some senior princes have held their jobs as ministers or provincial governors for decades; one has governed the Northern Borders Province since 1956. Whereas 40% of Saudi youth have no jobs and nearly half of those in work take home less than 3,000 riyals ($830) a month, every prince (of whom there are probably 7,000-8,000) gets a monthly stipend ranging from a few thousand dollars up to $250,000, according to an estimate in a WikiLeaks cable."
Young People Feel Stymied by Aging Repressive Governments
The demographics of Saudi Arabia are not that different from those of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Bahrain, and others in the region that have young populations who feel stymied by the policies of the conservative, repressive regimes in which they live. Young unemployed people in large numbers are the most dangerous citizens for aging autocratic leaders to confront. Especially today when many of the young population are Internet savvy and connected as never before by Facebook, Twitter, smart phones, and Skype. The Internet gives these people a view of the larger world and assists in breeding dissatisfaction with the world they live in.
Up to now the Saudi government has been able to somewhat insulate the kingdom from the protests and demonstrations spreading throughout the Arab world. With Saudi Arabia sitting on some $440 billion of foreign exchange reserves the government has in effect been able to stifle dissent by bribing its own people. Generous stipends for housing, education, and various subsidies have tended to economically elevate Saudi citizens living standards above that of their neighbors. In fact, recently one of the first things King Abdullah did upon returning to Saudi Arabia after receiving medical attention in the United States was to announce a new $36 billion spread the wealth around program.
Arab Lands Being Forever Altered by Revolution and Protests
The only thing we know for sure about the demonstrations, protests, and revolutions taking place throughout Arab nations is that the geopolitical landscape is rapidly changing and will be forever altered. While in each Arab nation the rallying cry of the protesters may be "freedom and democracy" there is no way of telling what form of government will evolve at the end of what is likely to be a long drawn out chaotic process.
Of course, each nation will likely reshape itself in unique ways. The type of government that eventually evolves in Egypt will likely be far different than the one that evolves in Libya. And certainly, as the largest oil exporter in the world, the level of violence and turmoil that may occur in Saudi Arabia will affect all of us far greater than demonstrations in neighboring Bahrain.
It appears that the Saudi Arabian monarchy is better prepared to defend itself from radical change than its Arab neighbors. It has an American trained and equipped military armed with many of the latest weapons purchased from the United States. The Saudis have a large internal security force that monitors dissidents and "troublemakers" closely and which will not hesitate to incarcerate them at the slightest perceived offense. As one of the United States principal allies in what used to be called the "War on Terror" the Saudi's have a sophisticated intelligence network that pays particular attention to any threats against the oil industry.
Still, when you examine the demographics and compare them with other nations in the region that have already experienced unsettling demonstrations, even revolutions, it is difficult to completely dismiss the possibility of chaotic unsettling protests within Saudi Arabia. There is the possibility of anti-western groups, such as Al Qaeda, seizing the moment and attacking oil installations as the Saudi's attention is somewhat diverted by widespread demonstrations against the repressive government.
It will be difficult for Saudi Arabia to fully escape the winds of revolution sweeping through the Arab world. In addition, if the fires of revolution are ignited in Saudi it will be difficult for the United States to stand by and witness the loss of oil from its third largest source of crude oil imports.
United States to be Heavily Impacted by Arab Revolutions
The explosive impact of demographics and the yearning for freedom and democracy in Arab lands is going to impact America's own commitment to freedom and democracy. Long term turmoil in North Africa and the Middle East, especially in Saudi Arabia, is going to drive oil prices ever higher and threaten the stability of our still floundering economy. Just how committed will the United States be to the spread of freedom and democracy in far away Arab lands should gasoline prices reach $5 to $6 per gallon or more and with its tie to energy prices food inflation becomes rampant?
Should the political landscape of North Africa and the Middle East continue to be chaotic, demonstrations in faraway Arab lands may well lead to spirited demonstrations within the United States. Sadly, to a nation of crude oil addicts, $6.00 per gallon gasoline is probably all it will take to generate calls for a return to the old order and cheap energy rather than for the spread of freedom and democracy.
Gerald Greene - Technology may save the world but it is a hard task master. It takes increasing amounts of work to keep up with the latest and greatest.
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