Although this is being written prior to the final round of the IBM Watson computer Jeopardy challenge I highly doubt that I am drawing premature conclusions. Based upon last night's Watson performance it looks like Watson will absolutely humiliate the human all time Jeopardy champions and convincingly win the Jeopardy challenge. The concept of technological singularity being achieved in the 21st century seems not only possible but much closer with the development of the IBM Watson supercomputer.
Technological Singularity Defined
The technological singularity moment will have occurred when technological progress becomes so rapid and machines so intelligent that it makes the future after the singularity moment more difficult to predict. One concern by those who study technological singularity is that when the artificial intelligence of machines reaches a level that exceeds the natural intelligence of humans the machines creators may lose control to the machines.
The concept forecasts the technological creation of super intelligence. It alleges that a post-singularity world would be unpredictable to humans due to an inability of human minds to conceive and predict the intentions or capabilities of super intelligent entities.
Some writers about technological singularity use "the singularity" in a broader way to refer to any radical changes in our society brought about by new technologies such as molecular nanotechnology or the use of robots that are able to build other improved robots. There are some prominent writers who specifically state that without super intelligence, such changes would not qualify as a true singularity.
Technological Singularity Expected to Happen in the 21st Century
Many writers also tie the singularity to observations of exponential growth in various technologies. Moore's Law regarding increases in computer power along with decreases in the expense of obtaining that power is the most prominent example. Most respected writers about technological singularity are predicting that the singularity is likely to happen sometime within the 21st century.
Writer Vernor Vinge proposed that the creation of superhuman intelligence would represent a breakdown in the ability of humans to thereafter model the future. In effect, the human mind would no longer to be able to keep up with super intelligent machines. He was the first to use the term "singularity" for this notion, in a 1983 article, and a 1993 article entitled "The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era" was widely disseminated on the Internet. Vinge also compared the arrival of technological singularity to the breakdown in the predictive ability of physicists to predict how the laws of physics will act beyond the event horizon of a black hole.
The concept of technological singularity includes the idea of an intelligence explosion as ever more intelligent machines design and cause to be constructed, perhaps by intelligent robots, ever more intelligent machines. Although in recent years technological progress has been accelerating, the rate of acceleration has been limited by the intelligence of the human brain.
Artificial Intelligence Expected to Exceed Human Intelligence by 2045
However with the increasing power of computers to assist in the computer design process it would be possible to build a machine that is more intelligent than humanity. The IBM Watson computer provides early signs that this indeed is possible.
If superhuman intelligences were created it would bring to bear greater problem-solving, innovative, and inventive skills than humans possess. Machines using superior artificial intelligence could then design yet more capable machines, or re-write source code to become more intelligent. These more capable machines then could design machines of even greater capability. These improvements to the capabilities of the machines would accelerate, leading to a repetitive self-improvement process. While eventually the laws of physics would impose some limitations, potentially a series of improvements to the machines intelligence would indeed produce a super intelligent and superhuman machine.
At some point a period of accelerating returns would likely be reached in which the speed of technological change increases exponentially, especially in the fields of nanotechnology, medical technology, computer science, quantum physics, and others. The term "singularity" is reserved by writers in the field to mean such a rapid increase in intelligence that, post-singularity, there will be no distinction between human and machine.
The year 2045 is the year predicted for the singularity according to the Time article titled "2045: The Year Man Becomes Immortal" by Lev Grossman Feb. 10, 2011. At this point computer based intelligence is expected to significantly exceed the intelligence of human brainpower. IBM's Watson is not there yet but seems to be pointed in that direction. At the current rate of accelerating technological change we are likely to at least approach technological singularity by the year 2045.
This possibility is both a frightening and exciting prospect for the future of mankind. Hopefully, as we move closer to technological singularity we humans will somehow find ways to keep from destroying ourselves and our planet while advancing our technology. The future could be fantastic or truly horrible. No accurate forecast can be made at this time.
Gerald Greene - Technology may save the world but it is a hard task master. It takes increasing amounts of work to keep up with the latest and greatest.
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