This would be in accordance with the 2008 Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) agreed to between George W. Bush and the Iraqi parliament.
The United States military and the US government had until recently believed that the SOFA would be renegotiated. The December 31, 2011 full withdrawal date called for in the SOFA was expected to be modified and extended.
Extraterritoriality in the 2008 SOFA Agreement Kept US Forces Immune From Iraqi Prosecution
President Bush was forced into the 2008 SOFA agreement because US troops in Iraq could not fight without a legal cover if they were to avoid possible war crimes prosecutions and lawsuits. It was unthinkable for the US military to agree that US military personnel could be tried in Iraqi courts and possibility sentenced to terms in Iraqi prisons. The SOFA agreement contained a provision called “extraterritoriality” that made US military forces immune from Iraqi prosecution.
The day on which the US lost Iraq was September 16, 2007, when Blackwater ex-military private security guards thinking that they were under attack opened fire in Baghdad's Nisoor Square on unlucky ordinary civilian motorists. Before the Blackwater mercenaries ceased fire 17 Iraqis had been killed and dozens more wounded. The sad incident united Iraqis who wished to end the occupation of Iraq by the US military and led to ongoing efforts to expel the US presence from Iraq.
The AP reports that the sticking point for the 2011 Iraqi cabinet was that the US side wanted any US troop contingent in Iraq to have immunity from prosecution in Iraqi courts. After the Nisoor Square incident this provision of extraterritoriality was out of the question for the Iraqi parliament. None of the Blackwater security guards were prosecuted by US courts which enraged many Iraqis.
Now it appears that president Obama will be forced by the Iraqi government to honor his campaign pledge that all US troops will be out of Iraq by December 31, 2011. The only exception may be a small number of troops to guard the US Embassy in Baghdad as well as a small number of "military trainers" who with the permission of the Iraqi government continue to train Iraqi soldiers.
In the words of Prof. Juan Cole: "And so that is the way the war ends. No great demonstrations in the US against it in its twilight. It is ending almost by default, because the Iraqi parliament can seldom get real legislation done, the US is forced to adhere to the 2008 SOFA."
Cost of War Exceedingly High for Iraqis and Americans
The real tragedy is that many thousands of lives have been prematurely ended by the war. The estimates of Iraqis killed vary wildly from 100,000 to as high as 1 million, although no one seems to really know. In addition, several millions of Iraqis were displaced within their own country or fled Iraq to neighboring countries like Jordan and Syria.
For Americans the cost in human lives has also been high. According to icasualties.org 4478 American servicemen and women have been killed in Operation Iraqi Freedom and 32,200 have been wounded. In addition, the financial cost of the war has been substantial to a nation that is now struggling with a high debt load. As shown on the infoplease.com website the estimated cost of the Iraq war through the end of 2011 is $802 billion.
Iran Receives the Most Benefit From Iraq War
The US will receive no benefit from its misguided war. Ironically, the nation that the United States most wishes to constrain in the region, Iran, is likely to receive the greatest benefit. Instead of facing a hostile Saddam Hussein-lead Sunni regime, Iran now has as a neighbor a Shiite dominated Iraq government that has forged close ties with Shiite Iran. Iran has gained considerable influence in Iraq as a result of the war.
The US will not be allowed to have any permanent bases in Iraq. It will have no special access to Iraqi oil, is turning over billions of dollars of facilities and equipment to the Iraqis, and leaves behind a nation that is still one of the most dangerous places in the world and that may yet descend into a nasty civil war between Sunni and Shiite factions.
After eight years of tragically destructive warfare, the Washington neocon dreams of establishing a permanent American presence in Iraq have turned into a nightmare. We are being told that we are no longer welcome in Iraq.
Sources:
Informed Comment Blog article "This is the Way the Iraq War Ends, with Bangs and Whimpers" posted Oct. 16, 2011 by Prof. Juan Cole.
Associated Press: "U.S. drops plan to keep troops in Iraq" as reported in USA Today, Oct. 17,2011
Guardian UK: "What is the real death toll in Iraq?" by Johathan Steele and Suzanne Goldenberg, Tuesday 18 March 2008
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